WARNING: This post is political in nature, if you don't care, don't read it.
So the House just passed the economic stimulus bill. The 787 billion billion dollar bill passed 246-183. It was surprising. Of course all but 1 democrat voted in favor of it, and no republican voted for it. But it should have failed. We just spent the last 8 years under a republican administration that did nothing but expand government spending, and now, the first thing President Obama does (not counting signing the Lilly Ledbetter Act) is pass more spending after spending 700 billion to try and save banks. The House of Representatives stuck it to the American people for at least 3 generations.
I'm torn about the package because I believe that something is needed for the economy. I believe that increasing government spending in times of recession will help pull the economy out of it. But my problem is that only 11% of the money will be spent in 2009. and 53% won't get spent until 2011. Most financial gurus are saying we will be out of the recession by 2011.
I also have a hard time with the package because Obama says it is free of pork. Yeah right. One example of pork is 30 million dollars going to a California conservancy group who are working to save an endangered species of rodent in San Fransisco (that has Pelosi's hands all over it don't you think?) Now tell me, how does saving a rodent create jobs?
The third problem that I have is that there is not a consensus among economists on whether or not this will work. I'm not expecting 100% agreement, but I won't hope their would more of a consensus among experts before the government spends money it has to print. Also, who says the money will actually get out of the federal bureaucracy.
The final problem that I have with the bill is that it does nothing to change expectations. One of the first things I learned in econ 110 is that people's expectations determine economic outcomes. If the people expect things to change, they will change. Most Americans don't want this bill! The 700 billion given to Wall Street didn't work. Why would we believe this 700 billion will work?
Another sign of problems with the bill is that over 100 employers of Caterpillar who were laid off last month contacted their congressman and urged him to vote no. This was after the President said that this stimulus package would give Caterpillar the money to rehire some of those laid off. Ouch.
I think that a better stimulus bill is one that spends more than 11% this year (that's about 85 billion of 787 that will first be spent). It also needs to be one that cuts out pet projects and focuses on infrastructure.
The bill will pass the Senate tonight. It will be tough since reports say that Sen. Kennedy will not be present. So even if all democrats and the 3 republicans vote in favor that only gives exactly 60 votes. Granted 60 is all that is needed to pass it. It won't be a landslide victory.
I hope this stimulus works. But I think our government made a mistake.
4 comments:
I can't think of very nice things to say about the "stimulus package". I put that in quotes because I don't think it's actually going to stimulate anything but the government's hold on everything.
Boo to what's going on. I wish we could fire congressmen rather than having to wait for their term to be over, but that would probably be as hard a job to keep filled as jobs in fast food. Just for a different reason.
I agree that something needs to be done, but I don't think this is the best plan.
This plan is a mistake of epic proportion. But there is change I can believe in:
1. I can believe that we will find new representatives. I can believe that many states will have major turnover in elections. I can believe that the seniority of senators won't quite matter as much when 75% of them are freshmen.
2. I can believe that the American people will get through this. We will survive *without* meaningful assistance from the government and recover the economy ourselves. People are generally resourceful and hard-working and we can do hard things.
3. I can believe that my grandchildren will study this in history classes and see quite clearly the mistakes that were made. I can believe that, with a great deal of effort and no thanks to the government, this can finally signal a change in the entitlement culture.
I believe that life will go on and will be better than before, but it is because I will work to make it that way. The idea that I need the government to bail me out is offensive. I am far more competent than they realize.
Sorry Chelsea, it is impossible for 75% of senators to be freshmen. Only 1/3 are up for election at a time. I agree with everything else though
See, this is why it's good that you're politically active. You actually know what you're talking about :)
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